Extrapolation Predicting the future is always difficult, concerning the weather, let alone the climate, but people have always leapt to completely wrong conclusions when there has been a short-term trend. These have all, inevitably, been proven to be wrong. People tend to apply linear or geometric extrapolation, which is not in keeping with the trends of nature. If there has been a period of rising temperatures, people have jumped to the conclusion that this trend is going to continue to disastrous ends. This is what is happening now with all the ‘Climate Crisis’ predictions. The fact is, that the climate is controlled by outside, cyclic parameters, that no-one can control. These have been known about for many years, but seem to have been forgotten recently. Now the thing about cyclic functions is that they are made up of a series of pure sine waves which each carry on to infinity. This means that if you can identify the component sine waves, you can add them all together in the right amplitude and phase, to produce a replica of the temperature graph for the last 120,000 years or more. Furthermore, this graph will continue into the future and will give a very good idea of what will happen in years to come. At first sight, the graph looks fairly random, but to someone conversant with electronic waveforms, it can be seen that such a graph can easily be constructed using many sine wave components at different frequencies, phases and amplitudes. Each of these would be due to a natural set of cyclic events, many of which are already known. 1.It is known that the orbit of the earth changes over a 112,000-year cycle. This is approximately the duration of an ice age and one inter-glacial period. This is known as the Milankovitch Effect. 2.The axial tilt of the earth oscillates about a mean position over a period of 41,000 years. 3. Its tilt also precesses with a period of 26,000 years. This gives us 3 main sinusoidal components to play with, however, harmonics of these components also play a part and must be added in also. If we can generate all these sinusoidal components so that the fossil record graph can be duplicated, we can then see what will happen in the future as these cyclic components are constant and will continue into the future. The above graph is the fossil record of world temperature that has been extracted from the Antarctic ice core. The present day is at the left-hand end and the right-hand end shows the last interglacial period which was actually warmer than the present day. This pattern has continued for the last few million years and is likely to continue into the future. When all the component waves were entered into a computer programme to reconstitute the resultant graph, a very good match was achieved, and it was found that we are actually at the very end of the present inter-glacial period and are about to start the long decent into the next ice age. However, this will not be a sudden decent (though it looks quite sudden on the above graph) but will take several thousand years to get really cool. A similar analysis was done on a smaller time scale to fill in the shorter term changes and these were combined with the larger time scale results to se what is likely to happen over the next two thousand years. From this you can see that the temperature will drop for about the next 500 years and then rise again a little for the following 500 years before really starting to descend into the next ice age. Even then there are prolonged periods with no change and even periods when the temperature starts to rise again. You can see from the curve for the present day that there has been a slight rise in temperature which has now peaked and will start to reduce over the next few years. Although the general trend is down, there are many times where the temperature rises again for a short while. This is because some of the shorter-term cycles take priority for a while. Plant Life Plants breathe in CO 2 , and give off oxygen, while all animals eat plant material and exhale CO 2 . This is the natural carbon cycle. The more animal life there is, the more CO 2 there is, which is good for the plants and means more food for the animals. A CO 2 level of 200 ppm is about the minimum level that will sustain plant life and an optimum is 2000 ppm . This is what is fed into greenhouses to boost plant growth. We are at just over 400 ppm at the moment and could actually do with a bit more CO2 to feed the growing population of the world. Natural Disasters There have always been floods, storms, famine, wild-fires, droughts, heatwaves and very cold spells. These are all natural quirks of the weather. The media now latch onto any such occurrence and blame global warming. In fact, if you study the records going back hundreds, or even thousands of years, you will find there have been much worse events in the past and that there is no sign of them getting worse. Many of these events could be avoided with human intervention. Rivers tend to silt up making flooding more likely. Dredging might help here. Clearing much of the flammable undergrowth could reduce the extent of fires, but this isn’t done as conservationalists say it will disturb the wildlife. Not as much as a wild-fire, I would have thought. Much easier to blame it on global warming. Here are some of the findings and technical reports made by independent climate scientists. This means that they have no axe to grind and no policy mantra to follow. 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